Nutrien Delivers Record Results and Expects Continued Growth in 2022

All amounts are in US dollars except as otherwise noted

SASKATOON, Saskatchewan–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced today its fourth quarter 2021 results, with net earnings of $1.2 billion ($2.11 diluted net earnings per share). Fourth-quarter adjusted net earnings¹ were $2.47 per share and adjusted EBITDA¹ was $2.5 billion.

“The advantages of Nutrien’s integrated business were demonstrated in 2021 as we delivered record financial results³ and made significant progress on our long-term strategic targets, including our key sustainability priorities. We utilized the scale and reliability of our world-class supply chain and the strong execution of our teams to ensure customers had the products and services they needed, when they needed them,” commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s Interim President and CEO.

“The outlook for global agriculture and crop input markets is very strong and we are well positioned to deliver significant growth in earnings and free cash flow in 2022. We will continue to advance our strategic priorities and maintain a disciplined approach to deploying capital, using our strong financial position to grow the business and return significant cash to shareholders,” added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights:

• Nutrien generated net earnings of $1.2 billion and record adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter while generating $3.2 billion of net earnings ($5.52 diluted net earnings per share) and record adjusted EBITDA of $7.1 billion ($6.23 adjusted net earnings per share) for the full year of 2021. Cash flow provided by operating activities in the full year was $3.9 billion.

• We prioritized the use of cash in 2021 to strengthen and reposition the balance sheet, reducing our long-term debt by $2.1 billion. We deployed $2.1 billion to dividends and share repurchases in 2021 repurchasing 15 million shares during the year under our normal course issuer bid (NCIB). To date, we have repurchased over 22 million shares under our NCIB program. Nutrien’s Board of Directors approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.48 per share and approved the purchase of up to 10 percent of Nutrien’s outstanding common shares over a one-year period through a NCIB. The NCIB is subject to acceptance by the Toronto Stock Exchange.

• Nutrien issued full-year 2022 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net earnings per share guidance¹ of $10.0 to $11.2 billion and $10.20 to $11.80 per share. Adjusted net earnings per share guidance includes our plans to allocate a minimum of $2 billion to share repurchases in 2022 on a balanced cadence throughout the year.

• Nutrien Ag Solutions (“Retail”) delivered record adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter and surpassed $1.9 billion for the full year of 2021. We exceeded nearly all of our 2023 strategic targets including a record 10.9 percent Retail adjusted EBITDA margin² and increased our proprietary product related gross margin to more than $1 billion in 2021, an increase of 22 percent.

• The reliability and efficiency of our global supply chain and strategic procurement helped drive our Retail normalized comparable store sales¹ to 7 percent and Retail adjusted EBITDA per US selling location² to $1.5 million during 2021. We closed 14 acquisitions during the year and increased our Retail digital platform sales² to $2.1 billion.

• Potash adjusted EBITDA surpassed $1 billion in the fourth quarter and increased 130 percent in the full year of 2021 to $2.7 billion. We achieved record sales volumes of 13.6 million tonnes in 2021 due to our capability to quickly ramp up production from our flexible, low-cost network of six mines. We progressed our Potash Next Generation initiatives and produced 1 million tonnes in 2021 using tele-remote and autonomous mining techniques.

• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA was $921 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and increased 114 percent to $2.3 billion in the full year of 2021. We completed our phase 1 brownfield expansion projects on time and on budget, launched a second phase of projects and progressed decarbonization initiatives.

• Phosphate adjusted EBITDA was $196 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 and increased 133 percent to $540 million in the full year of 2021.

Market Outlook

Agriculture and Retail

• Global inventory for key grains and oilseeds remains historically low due to a combination of weather-related events and strong demand fueled by a greater focus on global food security and recovering feed and bio-energy related markets.
• Corn and soybean prices in the US and Brazil remain very strong and prospective crop margins are well above the 10-year average. We expect this will incentivize growers to invest in their crops.
• US growers experienced favorable fall weather conditions that combined with strong crop economics, supported a second consecutive year of strong fall fertilizer application. We expect overall planted area of major crops to be similar to 2021 levels, with corn and soybean acreage in the range of 91 to 93 million and 87 to 89 million, respectively.
• Growers in Brazil planted an additional 4 million acres of soybeans which was a second consecutive year of record planting. However, yields have been impacted by drought conditions in major growing regions. We expect strong crop economics will support total Brazilian planted acreage and crop input demand in 2022. Australian growers continue to experience favorable weather conditions and harvested record wheat production.
• Nutrien is well-positioned on fertilizer and crop protection product inventory to begin the North American planting season. Our Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance assumes there was some pull forward of fertilizer sales volumes due to the strong fall season in North America and that Retail fertilizer margins return to historical average levels after increasing in 2021 due to strategic procurement in a rising price environment.

Crop Nutrient Markets

• Global potash prices increased in response to record global demand of 70 million in 2021 and tightness of supply due to competitor mine flooding, new project delays and uncertainty around sanctions imposed on Belarus by the US and Europe. We believe that many of these supply issues will continue into 2022, including additional restrictions imposed on Belarus potash transported through Lithuania. We estimate 2022 global shipments in a range of 68 to 71 million tonnes.
• Nutrien expects record potash sales volumes between 13.7 to 14.3 million tonnes in 2022. This forecast assumes sanctions on Belarus have a temporary impact on global supply. If there was a more significant long-term impact on global supply, Nutrien has the capability to further ramp up production by hiring additional employees and incurring some small incremental capital expenditures.
• Nitrogen prices have been supported by strong demand, soaring energy prices in Europe, and government restrictions and geopolitical risks in key export markets. Global urea prices softened in early 2022 during a seasonally slow period, however, ammonia and nitrates prices continue to strengthen due to supply side constraints. North American natural gas prices increased in early 2022 but we expect Henry Hub prices to average between $3.75 and $4.25 per MMBtu in 2022, well below import pricing levels in Europe and Asia.
• We expect to increase Nitrogen sales volumes to 10.8 to 11.3 million tonnes in 2022 with the completion of Phase 1 brownfield expansion projects in 2021 and higher anticipated operating rates.
• Phosphate prices have been supported by the expected reduction in supply from China due to export restrictions and elevated raw material input cost. This is compounded by tight inventories in key import markets such as India.

Financial Outlook and Guidance

Based on market factors detailed above, we are issuing full-year 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $10.0 to $11.2 billion and full-year 2022 adjusted net earnings guidance of $10.20 to $11.80 per share. Adjusted net earnings per share guidance includes our plans to allocate a minimum of $2 billion to share repurchases in 2022 on a balanced cadence throughout the year.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above and related sensitives are outlined in the tales below.

Consolidated Results

Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA increased significantly in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 compared to the same periods in 2020. This was due to higher net realized selling prices across our nutrient businesses, higher potash sales volumes, strong organic and proprietary product sales growth in Retail. In 2020, we recorded a non-cash impairment of $824 million primarily related to our Phosphate business and a gain of $250 million realized in the fourth quarter of 2020 related to the Misr Fertilizers Production Company S.A.E. (“MOPCO”) divestment with no similar transactions in 2021. Cash flow provided by operating activities increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 compared to the same periods in 2020 due primarily to higher net earnings. The COVID-19 pandemic had a limited impact on our results during the fourth quarter and full year of 2021.

Segment Results

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2021 to the results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2020, unless otherwise noted.

Nutrien Ag Solutions (“Retail”)

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to increased sales and gross margin achieved through market share growth, strong agriculture fundamentals and expansion in South America. Gross margin increases were supported by strategic procurement of crop nutrients and crop protection products in a rising price environment and a 22 percent increase in proprietary product related gross margin. Retail cash operating coverage ratio¹ declined to 58 percent in 2021 due to significantly higher gross margin.
• Crop nutrients sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to record sales volumes and higher selling prices. Gross margin per tonne increased by $31 per tonne in 2021 due to strategic purchasing in a rising price environment and higher proprietary product sales.
• Crop protection products sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to market share growth, higher prices and increased proprietary product sales across all geographies, especially in Australia where uptake by customers was exceptional. The reliability of our supply chain, growth in proprietary product contribution and strategic procurement supports our ability to deliver on strong grower demand throughout the year.
• Seed sales increased in the fourth quarter primarily due to significant organic growth achieved in South America and Australia following recent expansion initiatives and acquisitions. Gross margin percentage decreased in the fourth quarter due to the timing and mix of seed sales in the US. Seed sales for the full year of 2021 increased in all key regions where we operate due to higher planted acreage, higher prices and significant organic growth in South America. Gross margin percentage for 2021 increased due to price increases, including from our proprietary product.
• Merchandise sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 primarily driven by strong grower and rancher purchasing in Australia.
• Nutrien Financial sales increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to higher utilization and adoption of our programs. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2021 net receivables in the programs were $2.2 billion, an increase of $0.8 billion compared to the same period in 2020, while credit loss was minimal in 2021 and 2020 due to strong credit evaluation and collection as well as favorable market conditions this past year.
• Services and other sales decreased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 compared to the same periods in 2020 due to the divestiture of an Australian livestock export business in the fourth quarter of 2020, which more than offset increases in other Australian services and higher US custom application sales. Despite the change in revenue mix, gross margin increased and the impact to gross margin percentage was favorable for both the fourth quarter and full year of 2021.

Potash

• Adjusted EBITDA increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to higher net realized selling prices and record sales volumes attributed to our ability to increase production by nearly 1 million tonnes.
• Sales volumes were a record for the fourth quarter as we surged production to meet strong global demand and very tight global supply. We achieved this despite weather-related issues that temporarily impacted rail deliveries. North America and Offshore sales volumes in the full year of 2021 were the highest on record underpinned by the reliable supply from our flexible, low-cost network of six mines and integrated transportation and logistics system.
• Net realized selling price increased in the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 due to strong global demand supported by higher crop prices, impacts to global supply caused by competitor outages and project delays as well as uncertainty regarding future sanctions on Belarus.
• Cost of goods sold per tonne decreased in the fourth quarter due to lower depreciation and amortization compared to the same period of 2020 that was caused by production mix and timing of maintenance projects. Cost of goods sold per tonne increased for the full year of 2021 primarily due to higher royalties resulting from increased selling prices, a stronger Canadian dollar and cost inflation for energy and other inputs.

Canpotex Sales by Market

Nitrogen

Contacts

Investor Relations:
Jeff Holzman

Vice President, Investor Relations

(306) 933-8545

Investors@nutrien.com

Media Relations:
Megan Fielding

Vice President, Brand & Culture Communications

(403) 797-3015

Contact us at: www.nutrien.com

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